2026: NO MORE ILLUSIONS

The BRICS fantasy is unraveling — and Lula’s foreign policy is staring at a wall.

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By Antonio Fernando Pinheiro Pedro

Let’s cut through the noise. The Brazilian government, backed by its loyal media echo chamber, keeps pushing this dreamy narrative: that the BRICS are evolving into some kind of independent military bloc, a geopolitical force for the “Global South.” Sounds bold. Sounds progressive. Sounds completely disconnected from reality.

Here’s what’s actually happening.

Iran? Imploding. Inflation’s through the roof, the currency’s in freefall, and the streets are boiling with protests. Water shortages, food scarcity, drone factories barely functioning. The regime’s scrambling to hold itself together — forget about supporting Russia or leading anything.

Russia? Bleeding. The war in Ukraine has drained its resources, cost hundreds of thousands of lives, and yielded almost nothing in territorial gains. Now, with Iran wobbling, Moscow’s supply lines are under threat. Putin’s stuck — and the BRICS dream isn’t going to bail him out.

China? Playing chess. Beijing talks solidarity but moves with precision. It’s cutting deals with Washington, slapping tariffs on Brazilian exports, and keeping its distance from messy entanglements. Taiwan? Still tense, but it’s a diplomatic dance, not a war march. China’s not joining any anti-West crusade — it’s protecting its bottom line.

Maduro arrested - image: DEA

Venezuela? Cornered. U.S. arrested the narco-dictator Maduro. The sanctions are biting hard. Oil production’s down, exports are choked, and allies like China and Iran are feeling the squeeze. The “strike” worked — and Maduro’s "bolivarian" regime is dead.

The Caribbean? Under new management. U.S. naval presence is up, drug routes are being shut down, and traffickers are either sunk or scared stiff. The region’s being reshaped — and Brazil’s not in the picture.

Colombia? Petro’s losing grip. Cuba? Blackouts, poverty, desperation. Nicaragua? Isolated. Mexico? Struggling. The so-called progressive arc in Latin America is cracking — and fast, even your "Puebla Group".

Meanwhile, the U.S. is doubling down on its own terms. Military aid to Eastern Europe is flowing, but Washington’s steering clear of Europe’s globalist traps. The message is clear: America’s playing its own game, and it’s playing to win.

Terror networks? Under siege. Drug-funded regimes? Getting cut off. Even Portugal’s intercepting cartel submarines. The West is tightening the net — and it’s working.

So let’s be honest. The idea of a BRICS military force is a fantasy. The players are broke, broken, or busy saving themselves. Brazil? It’s not leading anything. It’s barely reacting. Lula’s government might talk big, but the facts are marching in another direction.

2026 isn’t the year of the BRICS. It’s the year the illusion fades — and the real world takes center stage.

Antonio Fernando Pinheiro Pedro is a lawyer (University of São Paulo), journalist, and institutional and environmental consultant. He is the founding partner of Pinheiro Pedro Advogados law firm and director of AICA – Corporate and Environmental Intelligence Agency . He served on the Green Economy Task Force of the International Chamber of Commerce, was a professor at the Barro Branco Military Police Academy, and a lecturer at NISAM — the Information and Environmental Health Center at the University of São Paulo. He has worked as a consultant for UNICRI — the United Nations Interregional Crime Research Institute, as well as for UNDP, the World Bank, and the IFC. He is a member of the Brazilian Institute of Lawyers (IAB), the Superior Council for National Studies and Policy at FIESP — the Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo, and Vice President of the São Paulo Press Association. He is Editor-in-Chief of the Ambiente Legal portal and curator of the blog The Eagle View.