COP30: Improvisation and Deception

 Climatist blabber collides with hard facts and Brazil’s poor governance 

This article is also available in Brazilian Portuguese. 👉 

By Antonio Fernando Pinheiro Pedro

“For a poor navigator, every wind is unfavorable.”

  Seneca

 

Introduction

COP30, scheduled for November 2025 in Belém, was supposed to be Brazil’s moment to shine on the global climate stage. Instead, it’s shaping up to be a spectacle of improvisation, contradictions, and ideological capture. The Brazilian government, eager to present itself as the guardian of the Amazon, seems unable to guarantee even basic sanitation or decent accommodations for conference participants.

The event risks becoming a collision between climatist rhetoric and the harsh reality of progressive misgovernance.

Between Ambition and Reality: Brazil in the Mirror

COP30 should be a strategic turning point — technically, economically, and geopolitically. Yet the host country resembles a rudderless ship adrift in stormy geopolitical waters.

Lost in proselytism and plagued by signs of poor governance, Lula’s administration remains directionless in its environmental policy. The risk isn’t lack of resources — it’s lack of strategy.

According to Fiquem Sabendo, of the 643 government meetings related to COP30, 344 involved the Civil House, 112 included Environment Ministry officials, and Marina Silva attended just 10. Lula himself showed up at only two ceremonial signings.

Extortionate Lodging: The Scandal That Exposed the Chaos

With hotel rates reaching $700 per night, delegations from developing countries are threatening to boycott. Simple homes in Belém’s outskirts are being listed for up to R$1 million for the 11-day event.

The UN called an emergency meeting, and Brazil responded with improvisation: floating hotels, retrofitted motels, subsidized Airbnb beds. The lack of planning reveals the chasm between lofty speeches and grim reality.

Belém: Symbolic Stage or Broken Showcase?

Choosing Belém was symbolic — and a trap for our sovereignty. The city suffers from poor infrastructure, delayed construction, laughable sanitation, and urban poverty. Instead of celebrating the Amazon, COP30 risks reinforcing stigmas and marginalization.

A more effective approach would be to limit access to the event, as Egypt did, focusing on the diplomatic sphere — operational delegations and heads of state.

To make COP30 a true strategic repositioning for Brazil, we must adopt a pragmatic, sovereign, development-oriented stance — free from dogmatic bans on human activity in the Amazon biome or mineral and fossil fuel extraction, which neighboring countries like French Guiana already pursue.

Brazil won’t carry the burden of “ecological purity” alone, surrounded by “faithfuls” bankrolled by hidden interests.

Five Pillars for a Nationally Purposeful COP

To ensure COP30 serves Brazil’s strategic interests, we propose five pragmatic pillars:

1. Economic Development First Environmental policy must align with operational security for key sectors — energy, transport, agriculture, mining, and industry. The Presidency must lead this agenda, with Congressional oversight. Lula should personally steer the narrative, avoiding contradictory voices. The focus must shift from abstract preservationism to concrete policies for civil defense and climate resilience.

2. Energy Transition Led by the Private Sector Programs like PATEN must prioritize innovation and competitiveness, attracting public-private partnerships. The new carbon market (SBCE) should be promoted as an investment magnet — with clear signals and minimal bureaucracy. Otherwise, strategic capital will flee.

3. Technical and Sovereign Climate Diplomacy COP30 must resist ideological fads. Brazil should adopt a data-driven, assertive stance with major players — China, the US, France, Russia — defending its interests with science and strategy, especially regarding Amazonian resources.

4. Energy Security with Traditional Sources Sustainable alternatives must be phased in gradually. Traditional sources — oil, coal, natural gas — remain vital for economic stability. Premature exclusion undermines energy sovereignty and increases dependence on foreign technologies.

5. Efficient Public Management and Tangible Results Revive tools like Ecological-Economic Zoning, invest in water infrastructure and logistics. Environmental legitimacy depends on improving quality of life and strengthening the national economy.

Conclusion

COP30 must not become a ritual of environmental self-flagellation.

Brazil must embrace its role as an energy and environmental powerhouse with pragmatism, institutional intelligence, and a focus on responsible development. With strategy, sovereignty, and credibility, COP30 can still become a global turning point — where Brazil stops being a submissive spectator and asserts itself as the author of its own climate and economic agenda.

As for governance failures that may jeopardize the event, it’s time for the government to abandon its plan to turn COP30 into a progressive activist assembly — predictably ineffective and embarrassingly amateurish. Instead, the conference should adopt a more reserved, technical, and effective format, compatible with Belém’s logistical realities and focused on each country’s diplomatic and technical corps.

Either we do this now… or brace for another international embarrassment.

References

Antonio Fernando Pinheiro Pedro is a lawyer (USP), journalist, and environmental consultant. He served as Executive Secretary for Climate Change for the Municipality of São Paulo from June 2021 to July 2023. A founding partner of Pinheiro Pedro Advogados, he is a director of AICA (Corporate and Environmental Intelligence Agency). He is a member of the Brazilian Lawyers Institute (IAB) and Vice President of the São Paulo Press Association (API). He was the first president of the Environmental Commission of the São Paulo Bar Association (OAB/SP), president of the Technical Chamber of Legislation of CEBDS (Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development), Chairman of the Environment Committee of AMCHAM (American Chamber of Commerce), and a consultant to the World Bank, the UN, and several other organizations charged with improving the state's legal and institutional framework. He is a member of the Strategic Studies Center of the Think Tank Iniciativa DEX, a member of the Superior Council for National Studies and Politics of FIESP (Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo), President of the Water University Association - UNIÁGUA, Editor-in-Chief of the Portal Ambiente Legal and responsible for the blog The Eagle View.