Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): Leadership vs. Scale — A Global Dilemma and Brazil's Strategic Chance

It’s time to connect the field, the sky, and the lab

This article is also available in Brazilian Portuguese. 👉

Photo - IATA

By Antonio Fernando Pinheiro Pedro & Rafael Possik Jr.

According to Bloomberg Green, IAG — parent company of British Airways — emerged as the top SAF consumer in 2024, acquiring 55 million gallons from waste oils and animal fats. Yet this represented only 1.9% of its total jet fuel use, highlighting a key industry dilemma: ambition is outpacing scale.

Global Realities: SAF Is Still a Niche Player

SAF is expected to cover just 0.7% of global aviation fuel demand in 2024 — while passenger traffic is projected to grow 6%, offsetting climate gains.

• In the United States, SAF adoption remains unregulated at the federal level.

  • Alaska Airlines leads at 0.68%, while American Airlines trails at 0.07%.

  • The SAF Grand Challenge aims for 3 billion gallons by 2030 and 35 billion by 2050, but faces funding and infrastructure hurdles.

  • States like California, Oregon, and Washington have created their own SAF credit programs, becoming hubs of decentralized innovation.

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• In Singapore, the approach is more centralized:

  • Starting in 2026, all departing flights must use SAF, with an initial 1% mandate, rising to 5% by 2030.

  • The Neste refinery in Tuas is the largest SAF plant in the world, with a capacity of 1 million tons per year.

  • Singapore Airlines and Scoot already receive locally produced SAF delivered directly to Changi Airport.

Economic and Infrastructure Pressure Points

SAF currently costs 2–4 times more than conventional jet fuel.

Sponsors like Microsoft and Autodesk help subsidize usage, but the cost per avoided ton of CO₂ ($150–$300) far exceeds traditional offsets (~$6.30).

Infrastructure remains inconsistent: new facilities are emerging, but closures and oil industry retrenchment slow progress.

Brazil: A Strategic Outlier With Local Resources - But Still Fragmented

Brazil holds unique advantages in the SAF race:

• Abundant biomass, leadership in biofuel technology, and a sophisticated aerospace industry.

• Proven feedstocks: ethanol, vegetable oil, and agricultural waste support key SAF pathways like HEFA, ATJ, and Fischer-Tropsch.

However, structural challenges persist:

• Lack of integration between agribusiness, chemical industry, and aviation limits scalability.

• SAF production still depends on multi-billion dollar investments in biorefineries, and strategic coordination across ministries (ANAC, MAPA, MCTI) and the private sector.

• Promising segments like unmanned aircraft (drones) — which saw 24% market growth in 2024 — remain under-addressed in SAF strategies.

Brazil's SAF Roadmap Through 2037 (Source: Law No. 14,993/2024 – Future Fuel Program)

Year  |	Emission Reduction  |   Target	Estimated SAF Production
2027	1%	83 million liters
2028	2%	153 million liters
2037	10%	1.1 billion liters

Conclusion: Connect the Dots — Or Miss the Plane

SAF is essential to decarbonizing aviation globally, but scaling requires more than ambition — it demands systemic collaboration, bold policy, and infrastructure that links farm, refinery, and runway.

Brazil could be a global leader, not just a supplier of raw materials. But to seize that role, the country must break silos, unify sectors, and bring SAF into the center of its energy transition agenda.

It’s time to connect the field, the sky, and the lab — before this flight takes off without us.

Rafael Possik Jr. and Fernando Pinheiro Pedro

Antonio Fernando Pinheiro Pedro is a lawyer (USP), journalist, and environmental consultant. He served as Executive Secretary for Climate Change for the Municipality of São Paulo from June 2021 to July 2023. A founding partner of Pinheiro Pedro Advogados, he is a director of AICA (Corporate and Environmental Intelligence Agency). He is a member of the Brazilian Lawyers Institute (IAB) and Vice President of the São Paulo Press Association (API). He was the first president of the Environmental Commission of the São Paulo Bar Association (OAB/SP), president of the Technical Chamber of Legislation of CEBDS (Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development), Chairman of the Environment Committee of AMCHAM (American Chamber of Commerce), and a consultant to the World Bank, the UN, and several other organizations charged with improving the state's legal and institutional framework. He is a member of the Strategic Studies Center of the Think Tank Iniciativa DEX, a member of the Superior Council for National Studies and Politics of FIESP (Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo), President of the Water University Association - UNIÁGUA, Editor-in-Chief of the Portal Ambiente Legal and responsible for the blog The Eagle View.

Rafael Possik Jr. is a business administrator (FAAP) and a strategist in management, public policy, and corporate intelligence. He is a Special Advisor at SP Negócios, where he applies military strategy concepts to the promotion of investments and exports in São Paulo. A partner at AICA—a consulting firm specializing in agribusiness, energy, and sustainability—he leads projects focused on innovation and the green transition, connecting economic viability with positive environmental impact. An agro-entrepreneur and professor of Agribusiness at FAAP, he chairs the institution's alumni association.